The Birth Rate Is it true, as the writer of Ecclesiastes said, "When goods increased, they are increased that eat them"? Is this recent rapid increase of many races of men a passing phenomenon, a response to suddenly enlarged opportunities? If so, may we expect a decline as conditions change? It is not easy to find answers to such questions. Long ago it was noted that the older American stock was not reproducing as rapidly as in earlier years. Willcox, a trained observer, believes that the decline in the birth rate began as early as 1810 in the United States. General Walker asserted that immigration produced no net addition to our population, assuming that the older birth rate would have continued had there been no immigration. Recently Baber and Ross in Wisconsin have found a shrinkage in the number of children from 5.4 per family to 3.3 in a single generation. In 1920 the foreign born and their native-born children constituted 34.4 per cent of the population. Dublin31 has claimed that of every thousand females in this country only 788 will marry. If so each thousand married women must bear 1,268 daughters to replace the sex. Each thousand married men must have 1,350 sons to maintain the number of men. Thus each thousand families must have 2,618 children (2.6 per family) to replace the original number. But, at present, one marriage out of six is childless, hence, the remaining five must have 3.1 children each. Dublin believes that the evidence shows that we are just about maintaining a stationary population. Just now, Dublin thinks, the number of people in the reproductive years is abnormally high, owing to immigration and to the recent advance in the medical arts. If we allow for this and adjust to normal age distribution the present birth is not 23.4 as generally stated, but 20.9. The death rate is not 12.4 but 15.3. If so, the present rate of natural increase is not II per thousand but 5.5. If we had to-day the mortality rate of 1910 the increase would be only 3.6 per thousand, while if the rate of 1901 obtained there would be no increase. Dublin, therefore, sees no reason to fear any rapid increase. The stoppage of immigration will soon enable us to get much more reliable information. After all it makes little difference whether the rate of increase be as slow as Dublin thinks or as rapid as Pearl believes. The important thing is that all students admit the increase and admit that in great areas of earth the standard of living is very low, not because people prefer low standards but because they cannot maintain higher. Pearl has taken a sound attitude. Is There a Solution? I am able to make no prediction as to how civilized countries will solve (if they do solve) the problems arising out of the impending saturation with human population of the portion of the earth's surface habitable by man. The certainty and assurance with which various ones of my friends advance solutions excites my wonder and admiration. But what impresses me even more is that scarcely any two of them agree on the nature of the panacea. To some it is birth control, to others it is synthetic foods derived from the atmosphere or elsewhere, and so on. For myself, I am content if I have succeeded, in even a small measure, in indicating that population growth presents a problem fast becoming urgent; a problem that in its overwhelming significance and almost infinite ramifications touches upon virtually every present human activity and interest, and in particular upon the activities comprised in the terms public health and hygiene.32 The writer freely confesses that he likes to get away from fellow man once in a while and commune with nature. He finds this increasingly difficult and at times yearns for more nature and fewer men. Is such an ideal wholly unworthy as compared with that which leads to a land as crowded with humans as China or India? Do we want to live or just exist? REFERENCES 1. W. D. RosSITER, J. Am. Statist. Ass., March, 1923. 2. W. GODKIN, quoted by H. WRIGHT, Population, p. 19. 3. E. M. EAST, Mankind at the Crossroads, p. 70. 4. Yearbook U. S. Dep. Agric., 1920, p. 815. 5. E. HUNTINGTON, Pulse of Progress, p. 311. 6. E. M. EAST, op. cit., p. 103. 7. Ibid., p. 104. 8. See especially the article, "The Utilization of Our Lands for Crops, Pastures and Forests," by L. C. Gray, O. Ε. Baker, F. J. Marochner, B. O. Wertz, W. R. Chapline, W. Shepard, and R. Zon. 9. O. E. BAKER, Yearbook U. S. Dep. Agric., 1918. 10. Yearbook U. S. Dep. Agric., 1923, p. 427. 11. Ibid., p. 416. 12. A. E. TAYLOR, in Population Problems, edited by L. I. Dublin, Chap. vii. 13. Ibid., pp. 103-106. 14. Ibid., p. 107. 15. Yearbook U. S. Dep. Agric., 1923, p. 431. 16. A. E. TAYLOR, in Population Problems, pp. 107-108. 17. Ibid., p. 110. 18. W. J. FRASER, "Three Herds of Dairy Cattle," Review of Reviews, March, 1915. 19. Yearbook U. S. Dep. Agric., 1923, p. 466. 20. Ibid., pp. 475-477. 21. U. S. Department of Agriculture, Bulletin No. 1348. 22. D. D. LESCOHIER, in Population Problems, pp. 77-78. 23. HUNTINGTON and WILLIAMS, Business Geography, p. 365. 24. Yearbook U. S. Dep. Agric. 1923, p. 452. 25. Ibid., p. 486. 26. Ibid., p. 485. 27. Ibid. 28. J. R. SMITH, North America, pp. 313f. 29. E. M. EAST, op. cit., pp. 164-165. 30. TRYON and MANN, in Population Problems, pp. 120-136. 31. L. I. DUBLIN, Population Problems, pp. 1off. 32. R. PEARL, The Biology of Death, p. 258. |