صور الصفحة
PDF
النشر الإلكتروني

from the rest of the population, as required by the laws of that
State, for purposes of State apportionment. For the State as a
whole the white population has increased from 767,181 in 1880 to
1,111,558 in 1890, an increase of 344,377, or 44.89 per cent. The
coloured population in the State shows an increase during the decade
of 5419, or 90.05 per cent, while there has been a decrease in the
Chinese of 3451, or 4.59 per cent. The whole number of Indians
in the State is less in 1890 than in 1880 by 3922, or a decrease of
24.10 per cent. The number of Japanese in 1890 as compared
with 1880 is large, although relatively small as compared with the
whole population. The number of Japanese returned in 1890 is
1099, as against 86 in 1880. The total population of the State for
1890 is 1,208,130, as compared with 864,694 for 1880, the increase
being 343,436, and the per cent of increase 39.72.

[blocks in formation]

APPENDIX III

The Influence of Civilisation upon the Movement of the Population. By P. LEROY BEAULIEU. (Translation from the Economiste Français, 20th and 27th September 1890, published in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society of London, June 1891.)

Reprinted by permission of M. Leroy-Beaulieu and the Royal Statistical Society)

The following are the facts in so far as regards France: From 1801 to 1810 the number of births was in the proportion of 32.3 per 1000; from 1811 to 1820 it was 316; while from 1820 to 1830 it was 30.8. This proportion, which by reason of its lowness, is much to be regretted, had not, however, anything very extraordinary in itself. It is true that it was lower than the actual birth rate in Prussia, Bavaria, Italy, Austria, Hungary, and Switzerland, but it nevertheless assured to us an annual excess of nearly 200,000 births over deaths. From 1830 until 1850 the diminution in the birth-rate became accentuated. From 1831 to

1840 the proportion of births was in the ratio of 29 per 10 0 inhabitants, and from 1841 to 1850, of 27.4 per 1000. Under the second empire there was another slight falling off. From 1851 to 1860 the average rate was 26.3 per 1000; and it remained absolutely stationary during the period 1860-70. Since then the falling off has become more marked, as from 1870 to 1880 the mean rate was no higher than 25.4 per 1000, and this proportion fell to 24-6 during the period 1881-85; it fell still lower in 1886, until in 1887 it reached 23.5, while in 1888 it was only 23.4. Since the commencement of this century, therefore, the procreative power of the nation has fallen from 32.3 per 1000 to 23.4, or a loss of about one-fourth, and since 1870 alone this power has diminished from the proportion of 26-3 to 23.4 per 1000.

In face of this systematic sterility which characterises the

French race, we can only derive consolation from the fact that all other civilised nations appear to be tending in the same direction. Up to the present this tendency, it is true, has not been particularly marked, but soon, probably in a quarter or half a century, it will become more and more accentuated. According to M. de Foville, it was only in Austria and Hungary that the birth-rate was the same in 1882 or 1883 as it was in 1865. In Italy during this short interval the proportion of births to every 1000 of the population fell from 38.3 to 36.9; in Prussia it fell from 391 to 36.3; in Bavaria from 36.9 to 36-2; in the Netherlands from 35.9 to 351; in Switzerland from 35.5 to 325; in Belgium from 314 to 305; in England from 35.5 to 337; in Scotland and Ireland the birth-rate fell to the same level as the French, namely, from 24.9 to 23.6 per 1000. Moreover, in England and Wales the number of births in 1888 was the smallest on record since 1876, and the report of the Registrar-General for the first quarter of 1890 showed that the English birth-rate had fallen to 30 per 1000, a proportion higher that the French rate, it is true, but much lower than that shown for all the preceding years.

Belgium offers a similar example. Here the birth rate was only 29 4 per 1000 in 1888, as compared with 30-3 in 1885 and 321 in the period comprised between 1871 and 1880. In 1840 it was 34 2, and the fact is worthy of some remark that it is particularly in the Walloon provinces, which contain the largest proportion of educated persons and those who are in easy and comfortable circumstances, that the birth-rate is low, while it remains comparatively high in the Flemish provinces, which are not characterised by the same degree of material ease and well-being.

In France the only departments in which a high birth-rate is observable are the poorest, namely, Morbihan, Finistère, Côtes du Nord, Lozère, Corsica, Aveyron, La Vendée, Landes and the Nord, and the Pas de Calais, where a large number of Belgians are to be found.

A German newspaper, the Frankfurter Zeitung, which did us the honour of criticising an article we wrote on this important question in the Journal des Débats, affirmed that we had failed to furnish a shadow of proof in support of our theory that the development of the general well-being, and the democratic condition of society tend to bring about a diminution in the birth-rate. It would appear that our German confrère is hard to convince, as we should have thought that an enumeration of the departments

is in itself a proof of our assertion. The generality of these departments is signalised by moderate rates of wages, in many cases very low, by a somewhat low standard of education, and a very moderate school attendance. If we compare two maps, one showing the departments classified according to the number of married couples who have received a certain education, and the other the departments classified according to the birth-rate, we should find that these two maps would be almost the reverse one of the other. We do not for a moment assert that there are not certain exceptions, although there is not a single one of what we may term the educated department appearing in those characterised by a high birth-rate; while, on the other hand, the greater part of the latter, as for example Brittany, Haute Vienne, Aveyron, and Corsica, figure among the less-educated departments. Neither do we affirm that education is the sole factor which reduces the birthrate, as this is only one of the factors which, combined with material ease, less fervid religious sentiments, and an ardent desire to attain a higher and better material standard, form an aggregation of intellectual and moral qualities which are little favourable to a high birth-rate.

It is the same in Belgium. We have already called attention to the fact that in the Walloon provinces the birth-rate is infinitely weaker than in the Flemish provinces, while in the former there is a higher standard of education; and, moreover, wages are also higher. The subjoined tabular statement will show this very clearly :

[merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small]

The above table has been prepared from the data supplied by the Annuaire de Statistique de la Belgique for 1889; the figures relating to education and wages refer to the year 1880, no later data being available, while the birth-rates are for the year 1888. It shows that in all the Flemish provinces the birth-rate is high, education little advanced, and wages low, similar conditions being observable in Brabant; while, on the other hand, in the Walloon provinces the birth-rate is very low, wages are much higher, and, with the exception of Hainault, where there are a large number of coal mines, education is much more advanced. Thus we may take it that in general (but we are not prepared to say that it is an absolute rule without exception) a low birth-rate goes hand in hand with high wages and the spread of education. It also appears to be particularly associated with democratic aspirations, and still more with a lessening of religious belief on the part of the people, and a modification of the old ideas of resignation and submission to their lot.

Thus what it has been agreed to call civilisation, which is really the development of material ease, of education, of equality, and of aspirations to rise and to succeed in life, has undoubtedly conduced to a diminution of the birth-rate.

It cannot be said that this falling off in the number of births, if it only brings in its train a smaller increase and not a diminution of the population in the old countries, is an actual misfortune, for the human race cannot go on indefinitely increasing on a planet. which itself does not increase. But in the present condition of the world, now that so many lands are insufficiently populated, and that nations have established a forced military service, and are ready at any moment to declare war one with the other, this reduction of births, particularly when it manifests itself in a country like France for example, must certainly be regarded as a relative misfortune. In one respect it is particularly unfortunate. This is that in the case of a family consisting of one or two children, the excessive tenderness of the parents, their perpetual fears of misfortune happening to their offspring, and the manner in which the latter are frequently indulged, have the effect of depriving the male children of any spirit of boldness and enterprise and of any power of endurance. From this evil France is suffering at the present day.

« السابقةمتابعة »